A study of the benefits of vaccine mandates and vaccine passports for SARS-CoV-2

Objective To evaluate the benefits of vaccine mandates and vaccine passports (VMVP) for SARS-CoV-2 by estimating the benefits of vaccination and exclusion of unvaccinated people from different settings. Methods Quantified the benefits of vaccination using meta-analyses of randomized controlled trials (RCTs), cohort studies, and transmission studies to estimate the relative risk reduction (RRR), absolute risk reduction (ARR), and number needed to vaccinate (NNV) for transmission, infection, and severe illness/hospitalization. Estimated the baseline infection risk and the baseline transmission risks for different settings. Quantified the benefits of exclusion using these data to estimate the number of unvaccinated people needed to exclude (NNE) to prevent one transmission in different settings. Modelled how the benefits of vaccination and exclusion change as a function of baseline infection risk. Studies were identified from recent systematic reviews and a search of MEDLINE, MEDLINE In-